English summary: THE FINRISK FUNCTION: ESTIMATION OF THE RISK OF CORONARY EVENTS AND STROKE IN THE FINNISH POPULATION
FINRISK cardiovascular risk factor surveys were carried out in 1982, 1987 and 1992 in three areas of Finland among the population aged 30-64 years. The incidence of serious coronary heart disease events and stroke events was identified from the National Causes-of-Death Register and the National Hospital Discharge Register. Of 8116 men 376 had an incident coronary event and 190 had a stroke during the 10-year follow-up period, and out of 8874 women 152 had an incident coronary event and 119 had incident stroke.
The FINRISK function was calculated using a logistic regression model. The risk for a major coronary event (fatal or non-fatal) among men was:
Coronary risk = (1/(1+exp(11.213 - 0.0802*age - 0.6260*smoking - 0.3293*cholesterol - 0.0166*systolic blood pressure + 0.5893*HDL-cholesterol - 0.7417*diabetes - 0.3138*parents' infarction)))*100
Stroke risk = (1/1(exp(11.6994 - 0.1153*age - 0.4881* smoking - 0.0149 * systolic blood pressure + 0.4406 * HDL-cholesterol - 0.879 * diabetes - 0.2933* parents' stroke)))*100
Among women the risk was:
Coronary risk = (1/(1+exp(11.839 - 0.0962*age-0.8776*smoking - 0.2119*cholesterol - 0.0175*systolic blood pressure + 1.1009*HDL-cholesterol - 1.0303*diabetes - 0.4090*parents' infarction)))*100
Stroke risk = (1/(1 + exp(7.9766 - 0.0633*age - 0.4163* smoking - 0.00893* systolic blood pressure + 0.7636 * HDL-cholesterol - 1.2383 * diabetes - 0.547* parents' stroke)))*100
Cardiovascular risk was calculated by adding the coronary risk and stroke risk.
The risk function can be used in clinical practice for estimating the patient's risk and also in health education for motivating people to change their health behaviour.
